Estimated Employment Opportunities and Labor Productivity in Central Java Province in 2025-2029

Authors

  • Yuliana Ristantya Ningsih D4 Demography and Civil Registration Study Program, Vocational School, Sebelas Maret University, Indonesia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.38035/dijemss.v7i6.6526

Keywords:

Labor Elasticity, Labor Productivity, Economic Growth, Economic Policy

Abstract

This study aims to identify labor trends in Central Java for the period 2014–2024 and project its conditions in 2025–2029, including the number of job opportunities and labor force productivity. The research uses a quantitative method with secondary data from Sakernas, RPJMD, the technocratic draft of the 2025–2029 RPJMN, and RPD Central Java, which is analyzed through the stages of compilation, cleaning, statistical analysis, visualization, and interpretation. The working-age population and labor force in Central Java continue to increase, with the open unemployment rate likely to decline (except in 2024), and this upward trend is projected to continue until 2029. The highest job opportunity elasticity is found in the corporate services sector, and the lowest in the mining and quarrying sector, but based on the projected number of job opportunities, the agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sectors are expected to be the highest, while mining remains the lowest. Labor productivity is projected to be highest in the agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sectors, as well as lowest in the mining and quarrying sectors.

References

Abeywardhana, D. K. Y. (2019). The Impact of Ageing Population on Economic Growth in South Asia. Asian Social Science, 15(7), 70. https://doi.org/10.5539/ass.v15n7p70

Achuo, E. D., Nchofoung, T. N., Julie Tiague Zanfack, L., & Ekwelle Epoge, C. (2023). The nexus between labour force participation and environmental sustainability: Global comparative evidence. Helion, 9(11). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e21434

Adriyanto, A., Prasetyo, D., & Khodijah, R. (2020). Labor Force and Factors Affecting Unemployment. JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL SCIENCES, 11(2). https://doi.org/10.35724/jies.v11i2.2965

Ali, G., Rosalina A.M. Koleangan, & Hanly F. Dj. Siwu. (2020). THE EFFECT OF GROSS REGIONAL DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) AND INVESTMENT ON LABOR ABSORPTION IN SOUTH MINAHASA REGENCY. Journal of Scientific Efficiency, 20(01), 1–11.

Central Java Bappeda. (2024). Draft Regional Long-Term Development Plan for 2025-2045 Central Java Province.

BPS. (2025). Open Unemployment Rate (TPT) of 4.76 percent. The average wage of workers is 3.09 million rupiah. Https://Www.Bps.Go.Id/Id/Pressrelease/2025/05/05/2432/Tingkat-Pengangguran-Terbuka--Tpt--Sebesar-4-76-Persen--Rata-Rata-Upah-Buruh-Sebesar-3-09-Juta-Rupiah-.Html. https://www.bps.go.id/id/pressrelease/2025/05/05/2432/tingkat-pengangguran-terbuka--tpt--sebesar-4-76-persen--rata-rata-upah-buruh-sebesar-3-09-juta-rupiah-.html

BPS Central Java. (2024a). Profile of the Elderly in Central Java 2023.

BPS Central Java. (2024b, February 15). Labor Force Participation Rate (TPAK) in Central Java Province (Percent), 2023. Https://Jateng.Bps.Go.Id/Id/Statistics-Table/2/NjMjMg==/Tingkat-Partisipasi-Angkatan-Kerja--Tpak-.Html.

BPS Central Java. (2024c, May 6). The State of Employment in Central Java Province is February 2024. Https://Jateng.Bps.Go.Id/Id/Pressrelease/2024/05/06/1525/Keadaan-Ketenagakerjaan-Provinsi-Jawa-Tengah-Februari-2024.Html.

BPS Central Java. (2024d, October 5). Number of Population by Age Group and Gender in Central Java Province (Jiwa), 2023-2024. Https://Jateng.Bps.Go.Id/Id/Statistics-Table/2/MTg3MyMy/Jumlah-Penduduk-Menurut-Kelompok-Umur-Dan-Jenis-Kelamin-Di-Provinsi-Jawa-Tengah--Jiwa-.Html. https://jateng.bps.go.id/id/statistics-table/2/MTg3MyMy/jumlah-penduduk-menurut-kelompok-umur-dan-jenis-kelamin-di-provinsi-jawa-tengah--jiwa-.html

Cruz, M., & Ahmed, S. A. (2018). On the impact of demographic change on economic growth and poverty. World Development, 105, 95–106. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.12.018

Dr. Satyam Pincha. (2023). An Empirical Study on Jobless Growth as a New Phenomenon of Developing Economy like India. Tuijin Jishu/Journal of Propulsion Technology, 44(5), 785–791. https://doi.org/10.52783/tjjpt.v44.i5.2673

Durmaz, A., & Pabuçcu, H. (2018). The effect of government educational expenditure on labor productivity in Turkish manufacturing sector. Zbornik Radova Ekonomskog Fakulteta u Rijeci: Časopis Za Ekonomsku Teoriju i Praksu/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics: Journal of Economics and Business, 36(2). https://doi.org/10.18045/zbefri.2018.2.519

Elok, M., & Wardono. (2020). Analysis of GDP, HDI, Population, Unemployment, and FDI Investment on Poverty in Central Java in 2011-2016. Proceedings of the Edusainstech Seminar, 4(3).

Evteev, S. R. (2023). On the issue of evaluation and analysis of labor productivity. Scientific Notes of the Russian Academy of Entrepreneurship, 22(1), 9–14. https://doi.org/10.24182/2073-6258-2023-22-1-9-14

Falzone, J. S. (2015). On the Sidelines: Labor Force Participation of Prime Age Men. Sage Open, 5(1). https://doi.org/10.1177/2158244015575557

Grigoli, F., Koczan, Z., & Topalova, P. (2018). Drivers of Labor Force Participation in Advanced Economies: Macro and Micro Evidence. IMF Working Papers, 18(150), 1. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484361528.001

Haider, A., Jabeen, S., Rankaduwa, W., & Shaheen, F. (2023). The Nexus between Employment and Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Analysis. Sustainability, 15(15), 11955. https://doi.org/10.3390/su151511955

Harahap, K., Nurhayati, Arafat, & Hatchi, I. (2024). Textbook of Research Methods. Indonesian Publishing Media.

Hipple, S. (2016). Labor force participation: what has happened since the peak? Monthly Labor Review. https://doi.org/10.21916/mlr.2016.43

Hutabarat, T. A. S., Fathorrazi, M., & Nasir, M. A. (2023). The Effect of Minimum Wage, Human Development Index and Unemployment on the Number of Poor People in Central Java Province in 2010-2021. Journal of Equilibrium, 7(1), 1. https://doi.org/10.19184/jek.v7i1.35051

ILO. (2015). G20 Labour Markets in 2015: Strengthening the Link Between Growth and Employment.

Irshad, M., & Qayed, S. H. (2023). Determinants of Employment Intensity of Growth in India: An Insight from Panel Data. Asian Millennials. https://doi.org/10.1177/09763996231175989

Decree of the Minister of Manpower and Transmigration of the Republic of Indonesia Number 309 of 2013 concerning Guidelines for the Preparation of Provincial and Regency/City Workforce Planning.

Khan, W. S. (2023). Factors Affecting Labor Force Participation Decision in Bangladesh: An Empirical Study Using Microdata. Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences Studies, 5(3), 01–05. https://doi.org/10.32996/jhsss.2023.5.3.1

Maestas, N., Mullen, K. J., & Powell, D. (2023). The Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth, the Labor Force, and Productivity. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 15(2), 306–332. https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20190196

Marliana, L. (2022). Analysis of the Influence of Human Development Index, Economic Growth and Minimum Wage on Open Unemployment Rate in Indonesia. Economics: Journal of Economics and Business, 6(1), 87. https://doi.org/10.33087/ekonomis.v6i1.490

Milanez, A. (2020). Workforce Ageing and Labour Productivity Dynamics. Naše Gospodarstvo/Our Economy, 66(3), 1–13. https://doi.org/10.2478/ngoe-2020-0013

Morén, V., & Wändal, E. (2019). The employment elasticity of economic growth - A global study of trends and determinants for the years 2000-2017. University of Gothenburg.

Muhyiddin, M. (2023). Post COVID-19 Pandemic Employment Challenges and Indonesia's Opportunities to Take Advantage of the Demographic Bonus. Journal of Employment, 18(2), 97–108. https://doi.org/10.47198/jnaker.v18i2.253

Muhyiddin, M., Trisnantari, S. A., Amrizal, M. D. R., Fauwziyah, F., Harsiwie, R. I. P., & Ardhana, N. R. (2024). Indonesia Employment in 2023: Labor Force Conditions and Policy Developments in the Early Stages of the Demographic Bonus. Journal of Employment, 19(1), 1–16. https://doi.org/10.47198/jnaker.v19i1.339

Mulya, N. P. (2024). Navigating the Tides of Change: Analyzing Indonesia's Employment and Unemployment Dynamics from 2011 to 2023. Indonesian Journal of Innovation Multidisciplinary Research, 2(3), 356–364. https://doi.org/10.69693/ijim.v2i3.189

Nazwa Naisniatunnisa Sholihah, & Mirna Nur Alia Abdullah. (2024). FACTORS AFFECTING THE PARTICIPATION RATE OF THE ACTIVE LABOR FORCE IN INDONESIA. SABANA: Journal of Sociology, Anthropology, and Culture of the Archipelago, 3(2), 131–138. https://doi.org/10.55123/sabana.v3i2.3344

Neifar, M. (2024). Structural policies, FDI and economic stability effects on employment elasticities: case of emerging economies. Journal for Studies in Economics and Econometrics. https://doi.org/10.1080/03796205.2024.2389270

Oshora, B., Nguse, T., Fekete-Farkas, M., & Zeman, Z. (2021). Economic Growth, Investment, Population Growth and Unemployment in Ethiopia. SHS Web of Conferences, 90, 01013. https://doi.org/10.1051/shsconf/20219001013

Özlem Taşseven, A., Altaş, D., & Turgut Ün, A. (2016). Uluslararası Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi, Mayıs (Issue 2).

Regulation of the Minister of Manpower and Transmigration of the Republic of Indonesia Number PER.16/MEN/XI/2010 concerning Macro Workforce Planning.

Presidential Regulation Number 12 of 2025 concerning the National Medium-Term Development Plan for 2025-2029.

Purnomo, S. D. (2021). Analysis of Labor Absorption in Central Java Province. Economists: Journal of Economics and Business, 5(1), 240. https://doi.org/10.33087/ekonomis.v5i1.311

Puspita, D. W. (2015). ANALYSIS OF POVERTY DETERMINANTS IN CENTRAL JAVA PROVINCE. JEJAK, 8(1). https://doi.org/10.15294/jejak.v8i1.3858

Ridwan Fajar Hidayat. (2022). Analysis of Factors Affecting Employment Opportunities in Central Java Province in 1991-2020. Journal of Research and Development of Central Java Province, 19(2). https://doi.org/10.36762/jurnaljateng.v19i2.887

Ryazanova, G., & Tolkachev, P. (2019). THE EFFICIENT USE OF HUMAN RESOURCES IN RUSSIA IN CONDITIONS OF CATCHING-UP DEVELOPMENT. Vestnik Universiteta, 10, 67–72. https://doi.org/10.26425/1816-4277-2019-10-67-72

Samosir, F. V. P., Mustamu, L. P., Anggara, E. D., Wiyogo, A. I., & Widjaja, A. (2021). Exploratory Data Analysis on Electric Rail Passenger Density. Journal of Informatics and Information Systems Engineering, 7(2). https://doi.org/10.28932/jutisi.v7i2.3700

Sari, Y. A. (2021). THE EFFECT OF MINIMUM WAGE, OPEN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, AND POPULATION ON POVERTY IN CENTRAL JAVA PROVINCE. Equilibrium: Scientific Journal of Economics, Management and Accounting, 10(2). https://doi.org/10.35906/je001.v10i2.785

Subanti, S., Hakim, A. R., Pratiwi, H., Sucahyo, U. S., & Kurniati, E. D. (2019). An analysis of the employment trends in Central Java province. Journal of Physics: Conference Series, 1321(2), 022053. https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/1321/2/022053

Swastika, I. G. M. Y. (2024). The Influence of Labor and Population Growth on Economic Growth in Indonesia in 2017–2022. Warmadewa Economic Development Journal (WEDJ), 7(1), 1–9. https://doi.org/10.22225/wedj.7.1.2024.1-9

Taguchi, H., & Latjin, M. (2023). The Effects of Demographic Dynamics on Economic Growth in EU Economies: a Panel Vector Autoregressive Approach. Journal of Population Ageing, 16(3), 569–588. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12062-022-09375-5

Tuzemen, D., & Tran, T. (2019). The Uneven Recovery in Prime-Age Labor Force Participation. The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Review. https://doi.org/10.18651/ER/3q19TuzemenThao

Van Der Gaag, N., & de Beer, J. (2015). From Demographic Dividend to Demographic Burden: The Impact of Population Ageing on Economic Growth in E Europe. Journal of Economic and Social Geography, 106(1), 94–109. https://doi.org/10.1111/tesg.12104

Waruwu, M., Pu'at, S. N., Utami, P. R., Yanti, E., & Rusydiana, M. (2025). Quantitative Research Methods: Concepts, Types, Stages and Advantages. Scientific Journal of the Education Profession, 10(1), 917–932. https://doi.org/10.29303/jipp.v10i1.3057

Downloads

Published

2026-09-15

How to Cite

Ningsih, Y. R. (2026). Estimated Employment Opportunities and Labor Productivity in Central Java Province in 2025-2029. Dinasti International Journal of Education Management and Social Science, 7(6), 5696–5708. https://doi.org/10.38035/dijemss.v7i6.6526

Issue

Vol. 7 No. 6 (2026): Dinasti International Journal of Education Management and Social Science (August - September 2026)

Section

Articles

License

Copyright (c) 2026 Yuliana Ristantya Ningsih

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Authors who publish their manuscripts in this journal agree to the following conditions:

  1. The copyright on each article belongs to the author(s).
  2. The author acknowledges that the Dinasti International Journal of Education Management and Social Science (DIJEMSS) has the right to be the first to publish with a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license (Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0).
  3. Authors can submit articles separately, arrange for the non-exclusive distribution of manuscripts that have been published in this journal into other versions (e.g., sent to the author's institutional repository, publication into books, etc.), by acknowledging that the manuscript has been published for the first time in the Dinasti International Journal of Education Management and Social Science (DIJEMSS).